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My friends call me Hambone. I’m a big fan of sports. Thank you for reading.
  • Week 7 Guess the Lines

    Week 7 Guess the Lines

    Not gonna lie. This is a complete rip off of Bill Simmons and his podcast with Cousin Sal. I also think it’s a good exercise to see where I perceive each team compared to my buddy and to Vegas.

    I just type up the games from an app that doesn’t show the lines and give my best guess of what the line will be. I’m not trying to get the line right. I’m saying what I would make the line if I were a bookmaker.

    Without further adieu, here are my guesses, my friends guesses, and the current MyBookie line as of 10:30pm est Sunday night.

    As you can see, I think that Bucs line is super inflated. I did lock in Chicago +13 even with the -120 juice. That’s just too many points. Don’t care if Brady and the Bucs have a few extra days to prepare.

    Do any lines jump out to you?? Anything you would bet today?

    Drop a comment!

  • Podcast Review – Sleeper and the Bust Ep. 944 – Wandering No Longer: Here comes Franco! – June 22, 2021

    Podcast Review – Sleeper and the Bust Ep. 944 – Wandering No Longer: Here comes Franco! – June 22, 2021

    Paul Sporer (@Sporer) and Justin Mason (@JustinMasonFWFB) discuss Wander Franco’s impending call-up and season outlook.

    Sleeper and the Bust Logo.

    First, a link to the podcast. Click on a players name to visit their Fangraphs page. The players discussed in this episode include:

    • Wander Franco (duh) – is he available in your league? Probably not.
    • Aaron Civale – injured finger (Expected to miss 4-5 weeks, click here for updates.)
      • Justin has a funny line after reading the list below, “None of which are real players.” The current Cleveland rotation is the following:
        • Eli Morgan
        • JC Mejia
        • Cal Quantril
        • Sam Hentges
    • Jesus Luzardo – Sent down to AAA. Easy cut in all redrafts per Sporer. What about the future?
      • Hambone’s take: Dude is 23 years old. Turns 24 in September. I will predict that he still breaks out and will receive votes for the Cy Young award in the future. Probably not 2022. But 2023 or 2024. Let’s just relax on Luzardo for now and continue to buy low the next few seasons.
    • Byron Buxton – fractured hand
      • Hambone’s take: This just sucks. Buxton was on pace to be an MVP candidate before he got hurt the first time. He just can’t stay on the field and 2021 felt like he finally took la leap to stardom.
    • Adalberto Mondesi – injured oblique
      • While Mondesi can be very fun when healthy, just like Buxton above, he just can’t stay on the field. Pretty sure he has been injured every single season of his career. Not ideal from a 2nd round ADP.
    • Pavin Smith – This discussion is fun. Paul likes him and Justin does not. They disagree and end up making a $20 friendly wager on Pavin Smith vs. Jesus Sanchez rest of season.
    • Gary Sanchez – Been hot recently and the guys do a little “Would you rather?”.
    • Julio Urias – Hit a bit of a rough stretch, and who knows if/when Dogeritis will hit him…
    • Jake Odorizzi – Been hot lately. How long do we ride with Odorizzi? For the near future for sure, but there are contract incentives for him to hit with IP so the Astros could move him out of the rotation eventually.

    Fun podcast, give it a listen!

  • Euro 2020 – Group E & Group F – Match Day 3 – DraftKings Salaries, Draft %, and Fantasy Points Scored

    Euro 2020 – Group E & Group F – Match Day 3 – DraftKings Salaries, Draft %, and Fantasy Points Scored

    Note: It is highly recommended that you use the “Find” function, as the lists below are very long. Ctrl + F and then type a players’ name to easily find their salary and points scored.

    Example lineup that finished inside the Top 30 out of 5,200 entries.

    Today is the final Group Stage match day for Groups E and F. Spain has work to do to qualify and Hungary could still advance, which would knock out one of Germany or Portugal, however unlikely.

    Entering action on June 23, here are the standings:

    Euro 2020 table entering June 23, 2021.

    Today’s matchups:

    • Sweden vs. Poland
    • Slovakia vs. Spain
    • Portugal vs. France
    • Germany vs. Hungary

    Spain need to win to ensure they advance, and have produced the most xG of every squad after two matches played. But they have only scored one actual goal. Who scores the goal(s) today for Spain is a mystery to me. Perhaps Alvaro Morata or Gerard Moreno? They seem to lack a definitive scoring threat a la Diego Costa or Fernando Torres of years past.

    Poland have one of the most prolific strikers in the world in Robert Lewandowski, and must win to have a chance at advancing. He is a good pick to score today.

    Cristiano Ronaldo, Kylian Mbappe, and Paul Pogba are just a few of the big names that highlight Group F.

    For those unaware, as far as DraftKings is concerned, this format requires you to pick the following positions:

    • Forward
    • Forward
    • Midfielder
    • Midfielder
    • Defender
    • Defender
    • Goalkeeper
    • Utility

    Every position must be filled, and kept under a salary of $50,000 total (more on this below). This makes it challenging to draft both Ronaldo and Lewandowski together, for example, as they have the two highest salaries available. You will notice some players’ position is M/F, so you can draft them into either position. Every outfield player can be selected as the Utility position; Goalkeepers can not.

    For scoring, DraftKings uses the following settings:

    All Players (GK,D,M,F)Points
    Goal10
    Assist6
    Shot1
    Shot on Goal1
    Crosses0.7
    Assisted Shot1
    Accurate Pass0.02
    Fouls Drawn1
    Fouls Conceded-0.5
    Tackle Won1
    Passes Intercepted (D,M,F)0.5
    Yellow Card-1.5
    Red Card-3
    Clean Sheet (D)3
    Shootout Goal1.5
    Shootout Miss-1
    Goalkeepers
    Saves2
    Goal Conceded-2
    Clean Sheet5
    Win5
    Penalty Kick Save3
    Shootout Save1.5

    Clearly, selecting players who score goals is key. While a clean sheet adds three points for a defender, you also need to avoid fouls and cards. It’s a delicate balance, and anytime a defender crosses the ball often or takes corners, it’s almost a must-draft.

    Here are the salaries for today’s Main Slate on DraftKings:

    PositionNameSalary
    FCristiano Ronaldo9900
    FAntoine Griezmann9400
    FRobert Lewandowski9200
    FKylian Mbappe9100
    M/FFerran Torres8900
    M/FJonas Hofmann8800
    FGerard Moreno8700
    FTimo Werner8600
    M/FMikel Oyarzabal8500
    FAlvaro Morata8400
    M/FAdama Traore8300
    M/FEmil Forsberg8200
    M/FThomas Muller8100
    M/FDiogo Jota8000
    MToni Kroos7900
    M/FLeroy Sane7800
    FAndre Silva7700
    M/FSerge Gnabry7600
    M/FDani Olmo7500
    MBruno Fernandes7400
    FKarim Benzema7300
    M/FRobin Quaison7200
    MPablo Sarabia7100
    FWissam Ben Yedder7000
    DJoshua Kimmich7000
    MKai Havertz7000
    M/FKingsley Coman6900
    FMarcus Thuram6800
    MPiotr Zielinski6700
    FAlexander Isak6700
    M/FGoncalo Guedes6600
    FOlivier Giroud6500
    M/FKevin Volland6400
    M/FJoao Felix6300
    FJordan Larsson6200
    DJose Gaya6200
    MIlkay Gundogan6200
    MDejan Kulusevski6100
    FJakub Swierczok6100
    DJordi Alba6000
    M Koke6000
    M/FRoland Sallai6000
    M/F Rafa5900
    GKManuel Neuer5900
    DRobin Gosens5900
    MJamal Musiala5900
    MSergio Oliveira5800
    GKUnai Simon5800
    GKKevin Trapp5800
    GKBernd Leno5800
    DLudwig Augustinsson5700
    MSebastian Larsson5700
    GKDavid de Gea5700
    GKRobert Sanchez5700
    M/FRobert Mak5600
    MFlorian Neuhaus5600
    MPaul Pogba5500
    DMarcos Llorente5500
    MViktor Claesson5400
    M/FBernardo Silva5400
    DLucas Digne5400
    FMarcus Berg5300
    M Thiago5300
    DChristian Gunter5300
    DRaphael Guerreiro5200
    MLeon Goretzka5200
    MKamil Jozwiak5100
    GKHugo Lloris5100
    DMarcel Halstenberg5100
    FDawid Kownacki5000
    GKSteve Mandanda5000
    GKMike Maignan5000
    DCesar Azpilicueta5000
    MMarek Hamsik5000
    GKWojciech Szczesny4900
    MKen Sema4900
    DBenjamin Pavard4900
    GKLukasz Fabianski4800
    GKLukasz Skorupski4800
    DNelson Semedo4800
    MFabian Ruiz4800
    M/FMichal Duris4800
    GKRobin Olsen4700
    DNuno Mendes4700
    MJoao Moutinho4700
    GKKarl-Johan Johnsson4600
    GKKristoffer Nordfeldt4600
    DCarl Mikael Lustig4600
    FRobert Bozenik4600
    MOndrej Duda4600
    MMattias Svanberg4500
    DLeo Dubois4500
    MCorentin Tolisso4500
    DDiogo Dalot4400
    M Pedri4400
    MJuraj Kucka4400
    FAdam Szalai4400
    DMaciej Rybus4300
    GKRui Patricio4300
    MRenato Sanches4300
    MSergio Busquets4300
    DMatthias Ginter4300
    DTymoteusz Puchacz4200
    FKarol Swiderski4200
    GKAnthony Lopes4200
    GKRui Silva4200
    DLucas Hernandez4200
    MRuben Neves4200
    MLaszlo Kleinheisler4200
    DPierre Bengtsson4100
    DEric Garcia4100
    MLaszlo Benes4100
    M Rodri4100
    DBartosz Bereszynski4000
    MPrzemyslaw Frankowski4000
    MN’Golo Kante4000
    DLukas Klostermann4000
    FNemanja Nikolic4000
    MKarol Linetty3900
    MAlbin Ekdal3900
    D Pepe3900
    DPeter Pekarik3900
    FSzabolcs Schon3900
    MPedro Pote3800
    DDiego Llorente3800
    MVladimir Weiss3800
    DMats Hummels3800
    DMarcus Danielson3700
    MKacper Kozlowski3700
    MAdrien Rabiot3700
    DAymeric Laporte3700
    GKPeter Gulacsi3700
    DAttila Fiola3700
    FFilip Holender3700
    GKMartin Dubravka3600
    DMartin Koscelnik3600
    DPau Torres3600
    MJan Gregus3600
    FIvan Schranz3600
    GKAdam Bogdan3600
    GKDenes Dibusz3600
    MAndras Schafer3600
    MGustav Svensson3500
    MMateusz Klich3500
    DPresnel Kimpembe3500
    GKDusan Kuciak3500
    GKMarek Rodak3500
    DLoic Nego3500
    FJanos Csaba Hahn3500
    M/FRoland Varga3500
    DTomasz Kedziora3400
    MDanilo Pereira3400
    DAntonio Rudiger3400
    MJakub Moder3300
    DJules Kounde3300
    MMoussa Sissoko3300
    DMilan Skriniar3300
    DEmil Krafth3200
    MWilliam Carvalho3200
    MThomas Lemar3200
    MStanislav Lobotka3200
    DAttila Szalai3200
    MAdam Nagy3200
    MEmre Can3200
    MJens Cajuste3100
    DRuben Dias3100
    MJoao Palhinha3100
    DEndre Botka3100
    DNiklas Sule3100
    DVictor Lindelof3000
    DKamil Glik3000
    MGrzegorz Krychowiak3000
    MKristoffer Olsson3000
    MPrzemyslaw Placheta3000
    DRaphael Varane3000
    MPatrik Hrosovsky3000
    MJakub Hromada3000
    MLukas Haraslin3000
    MTomas Suslov3000
    MDavid Miklos Siger3000
    MTamas Cseri3000
    DFilip Helander2900
    DDavid Hancko2900
    DRobin Koch2900
    DAkos Kecskes2900
    DJan Bednarek2800
    DKurt Zouma2800
    DMichal Helik2700
    DAndreas Granqvist2700
    DClement Lenglet2700
    DKevin Varga2700
    DPontus Jansson2600
    DJose Fonte2600
    DTomas Hubocan2600
    DPawel Dawidowicz2500
    DKamil Piatkowski2500
    DLubomir Satka2500
    DDenis Vavro2500
    DMartin Valjent2500
    DWilli Orban2500
    DGergo Lovrencsics2500
    DAdam Lang2500
    DBendeguz Bolla2500

    Below is the Draft % and Fantasy Points scored for every player. As you can see, the top two players drafted did not perform up to expectations.

    PlayerPos.%DraftedFPTS
    Robin GosensD40.13%6
    Serge GnabryF34.69%1.74
    Jordi AlbaD31.58%11
    Joshua KimmichD28.85%14.46
    Toni KroosM28.62%11.26
    Kai HavertzM27.40%18.14
     KokeM26.23%10.8
    Cristiano RonaldoF24.19%32.8
    Leroy SanéF23.67%5.2
    Gerard MorenoF22.81%16.18
    Robert LewandowskiF21.12%29.2
    Álvaro MorataF20.88%9.26
    Robin OlsenGK19.08%9.1
    Unai SimónGK17.73%10.36
    Piotr ZielinskiM17.38%25.2
    Manuel NeuerGK16.79%0.48
    Kylian MbappéF16.37%5.24
    Paul PogbaM15.54%12.92
    Antoine GriezmannF13.58%9.14
    Kamil JozwiakM12.79%8.46
    Diogo JotaM12.31%2.94
    Pablo SarabiaM12.25%29.32
    Martin DúbravkaGK11.85%5.36
    Jules KoundéD11.40%4.14
    Emil ForsbergF11.27%32.84
    Raphael GuerreiroD11.12%2.42
    Roland SallaiF10.71%12.6
    Alexander IsakF10.42%8.72
    Rui PatrícioGK9.75%2.44
    Sebastian LarssonM9.54%7.2
    Wojciech SzczesnyGK9.42%-3.86
    Hugo LlorisGK8.73%0.36
    Tymoteusz PuchaczD8.42%3.5
     PedriM8.23%5.4
    Lucas HernándezUTIL7.88%-0.22
    Karim BenzemaF6.77%27.8
    Antonio RüdigerD6.56%3.86
    César AzpilicuetaD6.52%9.58
    Ilkay GündoganUTIL6.35%-0.24
    Nélson SemedoUTIL6.10%5.32
    Aymeric LaporteD6.02%17.76
    Karol SwiderskiF5.81%5.88
    Milan SkriniarD5.50%-0.96
    Mats HummelsD5.48%18.72
    Lukás HaraslínM5.35%4.68
    Marek HamsikM5.12%1.86
    Péter GulácsiGK5.12%4.3
     PepeUTIL4.23%3.36
    Victor LindelöfUTIL4.23%0.76
    Ludwig AugustinssonD4.19%3.62
    László KleinheislerM4.06%6.46
    Lubomír SatkaUTIL3.92%1.7
    Carl Mikael LustigD3.88%6.9
    Sergio BusquetsM3.73%3.38
    Raphael VaraneD3.40%2.58
    Jan BednarekD3.29%7.68
    Marcus DanielsonD3.27%0.72
    Juraj KuckaM3.25%1.96
    João MoutinhoM3.02%5.58
    Matthias GinterD2.71%10.34
    Mateusz KlichM2.71%4.16
    Presnel KimpembeD2.67%-1.12
    Bartosz BereszynskiD2.60%8.22
    Corentin TolissoUTIL2.60%2.28
    Maciej RybusD2.58%0
    Ádám SzalaiF2.50%20.84
    Bernardo SilvaF2.40%6.82
    Willi OrbanD2.17%1.42
    Robin QuaisonUTIL2.06%0.58
    Tomas HubocanD1.92%4.38
    Róbert MakUTIL1.90%1.2
    Ondrej DudaM1.88%1.58
    N’Golo KantéM1.77%3.16
    Eric GarcíaD1.77%5.9
    Thomas MüllerF1.71%2.52
    Attila FiolaD1.69%3.56
    Peter PekaríkD1.65%0.52
    Rúben DiasUTIL1.60%1.88
    Kamil GlikD1.52%2.48
    Bruno FernandesM1.48%1.06
    Albin EkdalM1.37%3.24
    Renato SanchesM1.35%9.58
    Grzegorz KrychowiakM1.29%6.38
    Leon GoretzkaUTIL1.23%13.26
    Dani OlmoF1.02%0
    Danilo PereiraM0.90%4.46
    Loic NegoD0.85%4.94
    Benjamin PavardD0.73%0
    Jakub HromadaUTIL0.65%3.12
    Marcos LlorenteD0.62%0
    Timo WernerF0.60%1.14
    Ferran TorresM0.48%13.16
     ThiagoUTIL0.46%5.06
    Kristoffer OlssonM0.44%5.32
    Lucas DigneUTIL0.44%0.54
     RafaF0.40%0
    Kevin VollandM0.38%0.04
    Jonas HofmannF0.27%0
    Karol LinettyM0.25%0
    Adrien RabiotM0.25%1.46
    András SchäferM0.23%14.84
     RodriUTIL0.21%0
    Endre BotkaD0.21%0.3
    Kingsley ComanF0.19%4.96
    Attila SzalaiD0.17%0.98
    David de GeaGK0.17%0
    João FélixM0.17%0
    Pau TorresUTIL0.15%3.6
    Ádám NagyM0.15%6.94
    Christian GünterD0.13%0
    Gergo LovrencsicsD0.12%0
    Dejan KulusevskiUTIL0.10%15.68
    David HanckoD0.10%0
    Jordan LarssonF0.10%0
    Martin KoscelnikD0.08%0
    Marcel HalstenbergD0.08%0
    Nuno MendesD0.08%0
    Kurt ZoumaUTIL0.08%0
    Olivier GiroudUTIL0.06%0
    William CarvalhoUTIL0.06%0
    André SilvaUTIL0.06%0
    Lukas KlostermannD0.06%0
    Jamal MusialaM0.06%1.1
    Pierre BengtssonD0.06%0
    Léo DuboisD0.06%0
    Nemanja NikolicUTIL0.06%0
    Kamil PiatkowskiUTIL0.06%0
    José FonteD0.06%0
    Pontus JanssonD0.04%0
    Dawid KownackiF0.04%0
    Ivan SchranzF0.04%0
    Florian NeuhausM0.04%0
    José GayàD0.04%0
    Gonçalo GuedesM0.04%0
    Marcus BergF0.04%0.08
    Michal DurisF0.04%2.24
    Ádám LangD0.04%0
    Sérgio OliveiraM0.04%-0.48
    Jakub ModerM0.04%0
    Mikel OyarzabalM0.04%1.06
    Filip HelanderD0.04%0
    Viktor ClaessonUTIL0.04%12.12
    Adama TraoréF0.04%1.64
    Tomasz KedzioraUTIL0.04%0
    Marcus ThuramUTIL0.04%0
    Dusan KuciakGK0.04%0
    Denis VavroD0.04%0
    Robin KochUTIL0.04%0
    Emre CanUTIL0.02%0
    Jakub SwierczokF0.02%0.62
    Diego LlorenteD0.02%0
    Bernd LenoGK0.02%0
    Jens CajusteUTIL0.02%0
    Michal HelikD0.02%0
    Bendegúz BollaD0.02%0
    Dávid Miklós SigérM0.02%0
    Ken SemaM0.02%0
    Róbert BozeníkF0.02%0
    Lukasz FabianskiGK0.02%0
    Niklas SüleUTIL0.02%0
    Clément LengletD0.02%0
    Pawel DawidowiczD0.02%0
    Martin ValjentD0.02%0
    Kevin VargaD0.02%0.04
    Kevin TrappGK0.02%0
    Roland VargaM0.02%0
    Rui SilvaGK0.02%0
    Results of June 23, 2021 Euro 2020 Group F and Group E Match Day 3.
  • Podcast Review: Positive Regression Ep. 107

    Podcast Review: Positive Regression Ep. 107

    David Smith (@DavidSmithMA) and Alan Cavanna (@AlanCavanna) discuss three single-car satellite teams of 23XI Racing, Richard Petty Motorsports, and Trackhouse Racing. It’s always fun to hear David break down the analytics of each driver and it was a fun discussion.

    Of course, I am always interested in their race preview. It begins around minute 43:00.

    Nashville Superspeedway:

    • 1.333 miles
    • Concrete
    • D-shaped Oval
    • Low tire-wear (The podcast discusses two Goodyear tire tests at this track: almost no tire fall off.)

    This track is similar to Dover with the concrete surface. That plus the low tire-wear seems like it could produce a boring race, but David points out that it will take a smart team to win with the low tire-wear and not much separating the teams later in a run.

    Now for the good stuff!

    Picks to win:

    • David = #11 Denny Hamlin (+850)
    • Alan = #22 Joey Logano (+1300)
    • Hambone = #5 Kyle Larson (+275) (!!)… but that is lame, so I’ll go with #19 Martin Truex Jr. (+650) officially.
      • Odds as of 2 PM EST on 6/17 via DraftKings Sportsbook.

    Contrarian Contenders:

    • David = #20 Christopher Bell
    • Alan = #8 Tyler Reddick
    • Hambone = #17 Chris Buescher (subject to change as I’ve done little-to-no research outside of listening to this podcast.)

    Practice and qualifying are back! Love to see it, but don’t love to see qualifying scheduled for Sunday morning before the race… come on NASCAR…

    Links of interest:

  • Euro 2020 from an American’s Point of View

    Euro 2020 from an American’s Point of View

    Italy and Turkey kicked off Euro 2020 earlier today with a rousing 3-0 victory for Gli Azzurri (The Blues, thank you Wikipedia). This is a very exciting time for soccer fans everywhere. Europe features most of the top tier Men’s National Teams in the world, and this is the next best tournament to the World Cup (outside of the CONCACAF Nations League, obvs).

    This summer features each continents version of the same cup tournament. South America has the Copa America featuring Brazil and Argentina. North America will kick off the Gold Cup in July across the United States which might as well fast forward to the final between USA and Mexico. But…why am I discussing those when the title of this is Euro 2020? (Yes, that’s the name even though it’s being played in 2021.)

    You could basically just visit this page and probably not read any more words I type here, but what fun would that be? You came for a casual-American-soccer-fans scorching hot takes! I will deliver!

    First, the groups:

    Groups are drawn for these tournaments and if you couldn’t already tell, someone was really mad that France won the most recent World Cup. Portugal, Germany, and France in the same group is just not fair to each other let alone poor Hungary. Their tourney is over before it ever began. Group F is clearly the “Group of Death” for Euro 2020, and it will be a big storyline to see who advances from those four squads.

    Now for some picks!

    • Group A
      • Italy – Not really fair since I already know they won 3-0 today. What American wouldn’t pick Italy after this cinematic masterpiece?
      • Switzerland – The Swiss have the best player on Earth, Xherdan Shaqiri. Ok, fine, he is good, but nowhere near the best. However, my love for him is undying as I’ve been told by at least 5 completely random strangers unsolicited that I look just like him. It’s the nose and hair line, but then XS had to break my heart and go and get hair plugs. Alas, I’d like for the Swiss to advance anyway.
    • Group B
      • Belgium – These dudes are very good. Just trust me here. Plus those waffles.
      • Denmark – I’m basing this one of FIFA ranking (Denmark 10th place vs Russia 38th and Finland 54th), but I don’t have a strong take on the other 3 teams here. Belgium NOT advancing would be a huge shock.
    • Group C
      • Netherlands – I just love their uniforms. The Oranje! Been hooked on the Dutch ever since this wondergoal scored by Giovanni van Bronckhorst.
      • Ukraine (I guess) – toss up between Austria and Ukraine, but I’m going to with Ukraine due to their captain and goalkeeper Andriy Pyatov. He has 97 caps, aged 36, and is captain. Compare that to Austria’s 3 GK: Alexander Schlager, Pavao Pervan, and Daniel Bachmann. A combined 15 caps amongst them. I recognize more Austrian players, but it seems like the GK difference might determine who advances to the knockout stage.
    • Group D
      • England – It would be embarrassing if England doesn’t advance. Scotland and Czech Republic are ok but nothing special. The Three Lions will no doubt have revenge on their minds as Croatia knocked them out of the 2018 World Cup. England has too much talent not to advance. They could easily win the whole thing.
      • Croatia – This could absolutely be recency bias as Croatia were runners-up in the most recent World Cup, but they are also clearly 2nd best team in this group based on FIFA Ranking.
    • Group E
      • Spain – I mean, duh.
      • Sweden or Poland – Poland have Robert Lewandowski, one of the most prolific scorers in all of Europe. Sweden do not have Zlatan Ibrahimovic, previously one of the most prolific scorers in all of Europe. The Blagult (Sweden) do have Sebastian Larsson, former Black Cat of Sunderland (my favorite club team). So I will officially pick Sweden to advance (I know, flawless logic).
    • Group F
      • Germany – Die Mannschaft will not be denied. (Don’t worry it just means “The Team”. Europeans are not very creative with their nicknames.)
      • France – Isn’t it dumb not to pick the defending world champions? I think Portugal have just as good a chance to advance as Germany and France. This group will be fun to watch. Once again, poor Hungary.

    There you have it! Spoiler alerts for each group. If you made it this far, thank you for reading! Until the next international soccer star get hair plugs, Hambone signing off.

  • Team Ja’Marr

    Just needed to get this on the record. I want the Bengals to draft Ja’Marr Chase tonight. It is April 29, 2021 in the morning.

    First round of the NFL Draft is tonight in Cleveland, OH and the debate for the Bengals has been between Oregon tackle Penei Sewell and LSU WR Ja’Marr Chase. That’s not meant to discount the merits of Florida TE Kyle Pitts, which I would also be ok with. Any of the three had better be a Bengal by the end of the day!

    Should be fun!

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_NFL_Draft

  • UFC 255 DraftKings Analysis, Picks, Prediction, and Review

    About 15 minutes before lock, I entered this contest on DraftKings: MMA $700K 255 SPECIAL [$150K TO 1ST]

    This is my lineup:

    Quite frankly, I recognize one fighter competing in UFC 255, and that’s Mauricio “Shogun” Rua. Dude is 38 years old now, and I’m probably picking against him here.

    Some numbers for the contest:

    My lineup highlighted green (left).
    Draft % for the contest out of 35,744 lineups (right).

    This contest started at 6:30pm est and it is nearly 9pm as I type this. Getting pretty bored… gonna need one of my fighters to punch someone soon or I might forget all about this.

    As you can see above, my total draft percentage is over 200%. This seems bad. This is called “chalk” (picking the most popular fighters). Not ideal to win the contest. Hopefully ole Katlyn there at the bottom can score a bunch of points. Nice little leverage against the field with her only appearing in 10% of lineups (seriously…Katlyn Chookagian- what a name!).

    Somehow I picked 5 of the 7 most popular fighters tonight. Seems like that could go very well or very poor with not much in between, so I’m sure I’ll finish about 17,000th out of 35,744.

    Something to note after the first 3 fights: Sasha Palatnikov already won and scored 112.5 points. He fought Louis Cosce (64.5 points). So, nice to see a 34% drafted guy not scoring where he needs to early on. However, those ~3,306 entries that picked Sasha P. have a nice leg up on the field early on.

    As Bruce Buffer would say…. Iiiiiiiiiiiit’s time, for one of my DraftKings picks to fight! And I can watch it! We’ll be back after the fights. Enjoy!

    Edit 1 [9:09 pm]: OMG, I picked against this guy?! Prayers up for my lineup…

  • NASCAR Martinsville Betting Picks | Blue-Emu Maximum Pain Relief 500 | June 10, 2020

    Below is a screenshot of the MyBookie Top 5 Finishers odds as of 2:45 PM on race day, Wednesday. Personally, there isn’t much value on Kyle Busch, Brad K., Truex, or Hamlin.

    In my opinion, you need to be getting plus odds if you are wagering on an entire field pick in NASCAR (Win, Top 3, etc.). Even +150 might be too low, but Chase has had the fastest car all year.

    A trusted follow, @FantasyRacingOnline, tipped me off to this one. He produces some quality NASCAR content for DraftKings purposes and overall knows his stuff. Check out his website here: https://www.fantasyracingonline.com/

  • INDYCAR iRacing Challenge – Race #2 – April 4, 2020 – Picks, Preview, Prediction

    iRacing is back on TV today. This time the INDYCAR series (why is that all caps?) live on NBCSN at 2:30 PM ET. This link is a good primer for the event.

    Green Flag: 2:45 PM EST

    Entry List

    Paint Schemes

    Sage Karam won last week, so naturally, Bovada makes him the favorite for this race at +150. Those odds are completely ridiculous unless he gets the pole again. Even with the pole, those odds do not offer much value. But him, Will Power, and Scott McLaughlin are by far the most experienced iRacing drivers in the field. I’ve been trying to learn who has used iRacing in this series to pick the winner, because what else is there to do these days?

    Of course, the betting lines disappeared as I was typing this and qualifying doesn’t take place until 2:30 PM EST.

    There will be a competition caution, which can throw a small wrench into things. Considering that Sage Karam led all but 2 laps last week, I think the caution will be good for viewers of the race. Stages are a good thing for race fans.

    I’m trying to find the starting lineup, but from Scott McLaughlin’s Twitch stream, it looks like this:

    INDYCAR Starting lineup via twitch

    With that being the case, Will Power and Sage Karam are great picks to win. I’m surprised to see old Scott Speed up toward the top of the speed chart. Will be fun to see how it plays out. Let’s go racing!

     

  • “Free agency is awesome!” – Cincinnati fans everywhere.

    The Cincinnati Bengals and Reds have spent more money on free agents over the 2019-2020 offseasons than ever before. I can’t quite wrap my head around it all. As a fan of these two teams, I have come to expect nothing and keep my hopes low. They haven’t given me much reason to expect a championship or even much postseason play.

    In my lifetime, the Bengals have never won a playoff game and the Reds have never won a postseason series. This isn’t a ‘woe-is-me’, martyr piece; instead, it is an evaluation of the teams’ current situations and an attempt to answer the age-old question: Is my favorite team good, or am I just irrationally excited because I haven’t seen them play in a few months?

     

    ….to be continued