Halftime with Hambone

NFL Thanksgiving Day

November 27, 2025
Green Bay @ Detroit (-3)

Depending where you look you can get Packers +3.5 (-125) or Lions -2.5 (-124) so a fun middle opportunity exists here. Give me Lions by 3.

Let’s go with Detroit 27 – Green Bay 24 final score.

As for player props here a few I like:
- Amon-Ra St. Brown over 99.5 receiving yards
- Josh Jacobs longest rush over 13.5
- Jahmyr Gibbs over 117.5 rushing + receiving yards
- Amon-Ra St. Brown longest reception over 22.5 yards
Kansas City @ Dallas (+3)

Total is 53.5 give me the under. Pikkit has over $6.5 MM wagered on this game and the over is taken 64% of the time. I’ll fade the public and go under. Small lean on the Cowboys +3.5 with 52% of bets and 57% of the money on Dallas.
Soccer Thoughts – 31 August 2024

August 31, 2024

Premier League Matchday 3

Fulham to win over Ipswich – I just think the Tractor Boys are in over their head. Dead last in player wages and barely over half of Southampton with the 19th highest wages. This side was in League One 15 months ago. Godspeed Jack Clarke.

Morgan Rogers to score a goal – Unai Emery gushed harder than the Steamboat Geyser when speaking about Rogers Saturday morning. This is the breakout year of Morgan Rogers similar to Cole Palmer last year.

EFL Championship Matchday 4

Leeds to win over Hull – it’s overdue and Leeds’ performances thus far have been sufficient. Give me Brendan Aaronson to score or assist as well.

Stoke City/Plymouth Over 2.5 goals – Stoke could hit this themselves. Look out for Liverpool loanee Lewis Koumas to score. The kid is on fire for the Potters. Although I am now seeing Lynden Gooch is on the bench. I hope Argyle win now.

Sunderland to keep a clean sheet at Portsmouth – I do not like Fratton Park. I don’t know what’s in the water on the south coast. I do know that Sunderland has been fantastic defensively so far. Don’t mind a little sprinkle on Under 0.5 total goals first half and full match.

League One Matchday 4

Stockport County to win over Mansfield – Going to ride this hot hand until they lose, even if there is no such thing as a ‘hot hand’. Stockport signed Oliver Norwood from the Premier League and has been on the same path but performing better than Wrexham. Let’s see how long it lasts. Louie Barry to score.

Stevenage to keep a clean sheet vs. Lincoln – Bonus pick is a 0-0 final score. I don’t know why, but this Stevenage side seems to be very keen on preventing goals. Their xGA last year was among the best in League One and they’ve kept two clean sheets in three matches so far.
Underdog Pick’em – Choose One Discount

February 28, 2024

Today’s discounts include four NBA points props:

I settled on Kyrie Irving over 21.5 points mainly looking at tools on Betting Pros. That is a fantastic website that I discovered when attempting to research Underdog and PrizePicks props.

Kyrie’s projection on the link above is 27.9 points, good for the over on the original line. In addition to that, the betting line on several websites including Sugarhouse, BetRivers, and Unibet is now at 27.5 from an opening of 26.5 points.

My 2nd favorite was Tyrese Haliburton due to the line being so low, and his projection on Betting Pros of 21.6 points once again projecting to hit the original line. What made me nervous is several sports book juicing Haliburton Under 19.5 points around -122 to -127.

I don’t doubt that Jokic or Mitchell can hit as well, but Cleveland is on the 2nd night of a back-to-back while Jokic’s line seems to good to be true. If I had to pick, I’d take Jokic at 21.5 points, but Mitchell I can see staying under so just grab the extra points to 26.

What to pair with?

Of course, on Underdog you must pick at least two props to submit an entry. Lately, I’ve been focusing on tennis total games props because it’s fast and easy to compare odds and lines (explained below). I want the half-game included in the prop to avoid a push. I settled on an ATP match between Alex de Minaur and Sebastian Ofner tonight in Mexico.

You’re probably thinking, “Hambone, who in their right mind is picking obscure tennis matches around the world?” Well, you’ve found at least one person right here… (and I never promised to be in my right mind)

On Underdog, I am 3 for 3 in tennis props. Over on PrizePicks, I am at 11 wins and 3 losses. Clearly a tiny sample, but we’ll take it!

Over on the super convenient website Odds Portal, you can view a bunch of sports books’ lines all at once. I try to find a total that has juice one way or the other and it’s just a few clicks to compare different lines. Here is what I saw when I picked de Minaur:

Further, if you hover your mouse over the odds, you can see line movement:

As you can see, Under 19.5 games had opening odds of -102 and now -123 at Pinnacle. And nearly every line is juiced to the under. Combine this with de Minaur being a massive -1200 or longer favorite, and we have a selection in my book.

The entry:

Alex de Minaur – Lower 19.5 Games played (vs. Ofner) ATP Acapulco

Kyrie Irving – Higher 21.5 points (DAL @ TOR) NBA
West Ham United vs. Brentford – Match Preview

February 26, 2024

London Stadium plays host where the Hammers will welcome the Bees for some Monday night football. West Ham (36 points) sit firmly mid-table in 10th place with three losses in a row. Brentford (25 points) are in similarly dreadful form with four losses in their past five matches and only five points clear of relegation. Everton surpassed Brentford in the Premier League table today despite not playing a match as their point deduction farce was reduced to a six-point deduction from ten points previously.

The two teams’ goal differential is much closer with the Hammers (36:44) at -8 and Brentford (35:44) at -9. Checking the xG table via Football Reference shows Brentford has likely been very unlucky this season. The Bees’ xG is 40.3 and xGA is 37.7 revealing a positive xGD of 2.7.

Meanwhile, it’s the opposite for the Hammers with just 33.4 xG and 46.0 xGA for a near-relegation-worthy -12.6 xGD.

Both sides have missed key players with Ivan Toney suspended until January and West Ham still without a true center forward. Jarrod Bowen has performed admirably, but he is more suited as a winger.

It should be noted that Brentford’s poor form has come up against Spurs, Man City twice, and Liverpool. Any points from those four matches would have been welcome and surprising. They did take all three points away to Wolves on 10 February.

The Hammers, on the other hand, are coming off a two-nil defeat at Forest and have not scored a goal since 1 February in a listless 1-1 draw hosting Bournemouth. The goal was a penalty! Before that, it was a 2-all draw away to the Blades… by my count, that’s over 360 minutes without a goal from open play. Ouch.

Lucas Paqueta is in the starting 11 returning from injury to bolster the West Ham attack, but it’s still Bowen up front despite Michail Antonio returning from injury in the previous match versus Forest. Ivan Toney will have a second strike partner next to him in Neil Maupay.

I have to go with the season-long xG data in addition to the recent form in this London derby.

Prediction: West Ham 1 – 2 Brentford

Ivan Toney scores and the Hammers finally get an open play goal. Let’s go with Mohammed Kudus.
NFL Divisional Round Picks

January 20, 2024

Houston @ Baltimore

It just feels like Baltimore is too good, and Houston’s fairly tale will run out finally. From what I’ve read/listened to this week, each of CJ Stroud’s biggest strengths are negated by Baltimore also being strong against them. If you care, head to this link and read up. Or just listen to the Mina Kimes Show.

I don’t buy the ‘Lamar Jackson is bad in the playoffs’ nonsense. Each season is new. The players and coaches turnover every offseason. Lamar is the MVP (even if it is only because half the leagues QBs got hurt–looking at you, Joey B.). The entire team was awesome all year long. Until further notice, it’s SF and BAL on a crash course for the Super Bowl.

The pick: Baltimore -9.5

Green Bay @ San Francisco

Speaking of San Fran, these two teams meet for the tenth time in the playoffs. Doesn’t this just feel like a classic NFL matchup? Green and yellow versus red and gold. It should be beautiful. The final score? I am less certain that will be pretty.

GB is susceptible to the run. They are facing a coach named Shanahan. Good luck.

Expect at least three of the following to have a huge fantasy game: Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle. Picking the correct three? Let me know, please.

For Green Bay, apparently Aaron Jones is the most likely to have a decent day. SF allowed both the Browns and Bengals to run on them. But we are picking nits here. SF dominated all season outside of about three games. Jordan Love is a bit of a wild card–he could continue his hot streak or be harassed all night long by Jeffrey Dah–excuse me, Nick Bosa and co. Am I the only person skeptical that Love is the next great Packer QB?

It’s been just two months of high performance. Before November 9th or so, I’m not sure anyone was shouting “Oh no, Green Bay did it again!” the way that narrative has been shoved down our throats since Thanksgiving.

The pick: San Francisco -10

Tampa Bay @ Detroit

It was that beautiful Thursday afternoon of gluttony, football, and drinking-to-put-up-with-your-family that put Jordan Love firmly on the map and inserted some doubt as to whether the Lions would hold onto the NFC North or capitulate as they have so many times before.

Now they get to host a second playoff game in less than one week and are favored to make the NFC Championship. All they have to do is defeat former Cleveland Browns number one overall pick Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers. Doesn’t seem too challenging, right? Just in case Detroit tries to, ya know, pull a Detroit… I’ll grab the points.

The pick: Tampa Bay +6.5

Kansas City @ Buffalo

Ah, get the popcorn ready– er… buffalo wings? BBQ ribs?

No matter your choice of cuisine, this one should be fantastic. I will enjoy very much watching Josh Allen plow over Chris Jones and running for triple digits. I’d like Buffalo to win about 50-0. Of course, I doubt that will happen and I’m super biased.

Kansas City has been way too successful as an underdog for Mahomes’ entire career. Per that link, Kansas City is 9-2-1 against the spread (81.8%) and 8-4 straight up in over 90 NFL games with Mahomes starting. Clearly, it’s not often that KC is an underdog since Mahomes took the reins.

Counter point! I think we can all agree that buffalo wings are far superior to BBQ ribs or burnt ends, right?

The pick: Buffalo -2.5
Sunderland vs. Hull City – EFL Championship – Match Preview

January 19, 2024
The Stadium of Light plays host to this titanic affair between two squads hopeful to make the promotion play-offs at the season’s end. With the reverse fixture contested on Boxing Day (26 Dec 2023), the two teams will be familiar with each other under the Friday night lights.

Key missing players:

Sunderland
- Patrick Roberts – started and subbed off in the 74th minute on Boxing Day. Injured next match. A great player and first-team choice for sure, but has allowed more playing time to Alex Pritchard. Little drop-off in terms of skill.
- Aji Alese – A surprise to me. Has recently returned from a long injury layoff, but seemed to be a first-team choice. Jensen Seelt starting instead. Shouldn’t be a massive letdown. Different styles for sure.
- Bradley Dack – Personally, I prefer Pritchard anyway and Dack is a sub. Not a massive loss.
- Niall Huggins – A true fullback and would start today if fit. Alese was a nice replacement, but now it’s up to Seelt.
Hull City
- Jaden Philogene – Easily the Tigers’ best player this season. They miss him a ton.
- Liam Delap – Started nearly every league match and a Manchester City loanee.
- Aaron Connolly – Leading scorer with eight goals so far. Just injured in their last league match.
- Jean Michael Seri – international duty. Started 25 matches this season. Seems a big miss.
Starting Lineups

With the injury/missing list for Hull City growing, I believe they won’t have the attacking firepower to win on the road, especially at a ground like the Stadium of Light.

Score prediction: Sunderland 1 – 0 Hull City

Jack Clarke continues his fine form and nets the only goal of the match for the Black Cats.
NFL Week 13 Scorching Picks

December 3, 2023
NFL Week 13 Picks

Entry 1 – 37 points

Entry 2 – 34 points

(1 Correct pick = 1 point / Push = 0.5 points)

Lines to choose from:
- ATL at NYJ (+2.5)
- ARI at PIT (-5.5)
- DEN @ HOU (-3.5)
- DET at NO (+4)
- IND at TEN (+2)
- LACH at NE (+4.5)
- MIA at WASH (+9.5)
- CAR at TB (-5.5)
- CLE at LARM (-3.5)
- SF at PHI (+3)
- KC at GB (+6.5)
- CIN at JAX (-8.5)
Current Lines as of 12:05 PM on Sunday, 12/3:
- NYJ +2
- PIT -6.5
- HOU -3
- NO +4
- TEN +1
- WASH +8.5
- TB -3
- LARM -3.5
- PHI +3
- GB +5
- JAX -10
Entry 1 Picks
- ATL -2.5 at NYJ
- CAR +5.5 at TB
- NE +6 vs. LACH
- MIA -9.5 at WASH
- JAX -8.5 vs. CIN
Entry 2 Picks
- SEA +9 at DAL
- DET -4 at NO
- TEN +2 vs. IND
- GB +6.5 vs. KC
- JAX -8.5 vs. CIN
Draft Khalil Herbert, Profit

August 4, 2023
This one is simple. Khalil Herbert is being undervalued in fantasy football for the 2023 season. You should draft him in any format and I believe you will be happy about it soon.

Below is his ADP on various fantasy football websites:
- NFC – 105.84
- Yahoo! – 103.4
- ESPN – 131.0
- NFL – 101
- CBS – 88.33
- Sleeper – 107
- Underdog – 119
This is just absurd. David Montgomery has left the Bears. Khalil Herbert figures to be the lead running back. I do not understand why he is being drafted into the triple digits of ADP.
Max Muncy will hit 30 HR with an average of .260 or greater in 2023

January 31, 2023

Funky Muncy (we can do better than that, right?) has weirdly become a fantasy favorite of mine in the past few seasons. If you have an idea how he performed in 2022, you might think I’m crazy. Sure, he was horrible in posting a .196 average in 565 plate appearances. However, he was only 4% worse than the league average per OPS+ (via Baseball Reference) and was battling an elbow injury for who knows how long.

Muncy is eligible at second base and third base. Obviously, this adds corner infield and middle infield as alternate roster slots as well. Positional flexibility is always a plus in the NFC format.

Outside of that, he is a Dodger, giving him a boost for the R and RBI categories, of which he had 69 (nice) each last year. Munce (like I said, we can do better, right?) barrels the ball in the 91st percentile while walking at the 4th best rate in MLB last year out of 252 batters via Baseball Savant. I’m guessing those two reasons are primarily why he was nearly a league-average hitter while sporting that sub .200 batting average.

One reason I think that batting average is due for a boon is the new shift rule in MLB. Banning the shift should give Muncy a boost in the BABIP department. It was just .227 last year with a career mark of .256. Tack on another say .020 or more BABIP due to the rule changes and suddenly we’re looking at around .276 BABIP for 2023. Add a little luck and it might just creep over .280.
In 2019 he posted a .286 BABIP to go with a .251 average. I’d say this makes it a bold call since he really shouldn’t project for any higher than a .250 batting average in 2023. Put that together with the 30 HR and we’d have a heck of a draft day value anywhere in the triple-digit picks.

I’d be remiss if I didn’t give a hat tip to my guy, Sporer, who tipped the scale with this Fangraphs article to convince me to click the Draft button on Muncy just a few days ago. I got him in Round 9 of a 12-team draft and hold with the 107th overall pick.

His current ADP is 145 overall, with a min pick of 82 and a max of 209 from October 2022 to today. But, if you adjust the calendar to just 2023 drafts, he is already creeping up with an ADP of 132 since the new year. While I may not have gotten a bargain, I jumped the ADP to get my guy.

Love the duel positions, love the lineup, and the rule change should help. Here’s to a bounce-back for ~~Mad~~ Max “~~Midland Masher~~” Muncy, eh, the nickname is a work in progress…
Podcast Review: Men in Blazers 05/02/22

May 3, 2022

Link to the podcast here.

An El Blazerico for the ages! Following Everton’s hanging-on-by-a-thread 1-0 victory over Chelsea, Davo and Rog recap another action-packed weekend of Premier League football.

Matchday 35 results include Burnley getting all three points despite trailing 0-1 in the 82nd minute at Vicarage Road, Jordan Pickford putting in a performance worthy of England’s number one goalkeeper to keep Everton’s hopes alive, and City, as well as Liverpool, continuing their dominance atop the table.