‘SCAR is back! Sure, it’s preseason, but it’s back!!

Green flag drops at 3:24 PM. It’s currently 3:00 PM and DraftKings lineups just locked.

Taking a look at who others picked vs myself, I will be a big fan of Austin Dillon, Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney, and Aric Almirola, in that order (more on this below).

On the flip side, I will not do so well if Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano, or the Busch bros finish in the front.

Here is the actual percent drafted by all entries vs my 20 lineups:

Picks to win

If I could only take one driver today it’s the wheelman of the #12 Menard’s Ford, Ryan Blaney.

However, I live in America and that means I can pick more than one. If any of these guys take the checkered flag today, I will have gained some capital:

#12 Ryan Blaney (+1100)
#3 Austin Dillon (+2700)
#42 Kyle Larson (+2400)
#10 Aric Almirola (+1900)

For Fun

Tossed a few shekels on one head-to-head matchup:

Kyle Busch (-105) over Kevin Harvick

Yes, I’m aware no one cares about my fantasy team except me. But I think this will be a fun exercise for anyone that plays fantasy football (Plus, these aren’t my teams…)

This trade was accepted and just processed today (Nov. 15), so both teams will have their new players for Week 11. This league scores full PPR.

The highlighted players switched teams. The screenshot above is each team today, after the trade entering Week 11.

Context:

Left Side: 7-3 | 2nd Place | 1,330.28 points scored (4th/12)
Right Side: 4-6 | 10th Place | 1,169.08 points scored (7th/12)

Left Side is going to make the playoffs. Right Side pretty much has to win out to have a shot. They are tied with two other 4-6 teams and are the lowest of the three in points scored.

Trade Analysis:

Josh Jacobs is the best player in the trade, today, November 15th. Le’Veon Bell is the best overall at his job. But for 2019, I’d rather have the Raider than the Jet…once again, today.

Le’Veon Bell should be the best player in the trade, but he just hasn’t been able to get going in the putrid Jets offense. Using a 3rd-string QB is no way to score points in the NFL, but now that Sam Darnold is back you can see a path to fantasy relevance for Le’Veon. Only time will tell…

I don’t believe in Mark Andrews very much. Baltimore uses all three TE quite a bit and my eyeballs have seen Andrews drop multiple passes. With that said, if he continues to catch touchdowns that will obviously be a win for the team on the right. (Even if he doesn’t, I’d rather have Andrews than Big Daddy Hock for the rest of the season.)

TJ Hockenson now has a backup QB in Jeff Driskel throwing him the ball, so that’s less than ideal.

I feel Golden Tate in PPR formats, so that seems like a solid add for the Right Side.

To me, it’s a pretty clear win for the team on the right. Of course, I can see the scenario where Josh Jacobs continues producing yards and TD’s and ideally some catches. Also, Le’Veon Bell struggles behind a bad offense and regression hits Mark Andrews and Golden Tate also struggles with a rookie QB and bad offense.

But, I’m going to say, when I look back at this between Week 16 and 17, the right side will be the winner.

This is pretty surprising to me. While laying double-digit points isn’t exactly a goal of mine, I can’t believe that over 3 out of 4 picks are taking the Cardinals. Typically, the majority (read: public) picks the favorite. It’s just what they do.

To be fair, Arizona did open at +14, but that’s not how this pick ’em game works. You are picking the given spread here. The real numbers to monitor this week will be San Fran winning by 12 or 13. If that happens, Vegas will lose big on this game.

This will be fun to revisit come Sunday evening.

I know, I know. No one else cares about my fantasy baseball team. I am writing this post to gather my thoughts immediately post-draft because a lot will change in a short amount of time and I’ll wonder what the heck I was thinking drafting a 35-year-old first baseman in round 9 or a 34-year-old starting pitcher whose best days may very well be behind him. (And missing out of my favorite teams’ best young players..more on that later)

First, my team:

Our league allows for up to five keepers. You are allowed to keep the player in the round they were drafted originally. My keepers are starred in the above picture. You may notice Rounds 3, 4, 8, 9, and 13 missing. I made several trades involving draft picks last season to acquire players and make a push to win the league.

As you may notice by my team name, it worked. I won the league and the trades turned out to be worth it, despite hurting me for this draft.

I could have kept Jameson Taillon in Round 10 and absolutely regret choosing Jesse Winker over him. Taillon went in Round 4, 38th overall. I could have kept him at 114th overall.  Aside from that, my remaining keepers each were being drafted much sooner than where I was able to “draft” them. I’m nervous that Winker may not start every day, but I was able to get Matt Kemp so I should have at least one starter every day between the two of them.

Starting out the draft with Baez, Myers, Mondesi, Bauer, and Winker was nice as far as filling positions go. I didn’t really have to chase a middle infielder early on. My first pick presented Freeman, Jose Altuve, Giancarlo Stanton, and Manny Machado. Freeman was the pick based on position mainly. The runner-up was Altuve for sure. I actually didn’t draft any 2B, and instead took 3 more 1B, so that seems head-scratching right now (20 minutes after the draft and lacking sleep).

Round 2: After that, I chose Thor (who is looking more mullet-like currently, love it) over Kris Bryant. Once again, this was influenced by my keepers. I love Bryant this year as he played injured for most of last season. I could have gotten him at Pick 18, but that’s excluding the 60 players kept in total. Insane value if he even sniffs his MVP production from 2016.

Looking at Doolittle in Round 5, I am mad at myself. I hate chasing saves early in the draft. Round 5 is so damn high for a guy who isn’t even an elite closer. Man oh man, I hope the Nationals are good…

Picking Devers in Round 6 wasn’t an easy choice. Clayton Kershaw was available and Luis Castillo, the Reds opening day starter (Also, a player on my roster from last year that I could have kept). One of my main goals of the draft was making sure I got Castillo. I blame the Yahoo! draft client (just kidding, it’s my own damn fault for not remembering that I had kept Baez in Round 7).

An aside: The stupid draft software makes your next pick bold and puts a line under the player that would fall to you next if everyone drafts in the order of the board. That doesn’t happen, but it’s a nice barometer to see if you can wait to grab a guy. As it were, Castillo went pick 85. My pick was 79. I would have gotten him had I had my pick rather than a keeper. I’m not used to drafting with keepers, and I think Yahoo! needs to change the way they show your picks. Oh well, maybe Castillo wouldn’t have been worth it.

So, I’ve gotten two ace’s, great hitters so far, and now I have to wait.. No picks Round 8 or 9 (I got Clayton Kershaw, R22, R23 for Dexter Fowler, R8, R9 last year, LOL).

Finally, my turn to pick again, and I go with Kyle Schwarber in Round 10. I was considering Nick Pivetta and eye-balling some closers in Cody Allen and Jose Alvarado. I had no intention of taking Schwarber until after the 1:00 clock had started for my pick. So, I’m fully on board with my guy Eno Sarris.

Pivetta didn’t make it back to me as he went Pick 118. I settled on Jose Alvarado at pick 123. Feels too early for another closer but I was tired of missing on guys I like. I have heard his name on some podcasts recently, I think. Seriously, if he and Doolittle don’t work out, I am never drafting a closer before Round 15 again.

Next, I really screwed up, taking Hyun-Jin Ryu over teammates Kenta Maeda and Ross Stripling. This is mainly due to Nick Pollack’s pitcher rankings, which I just happened to look up right after drafting Ryu.

Talk about head-scratching and you have my Round 12 pick, Miguel Cabrera. A far cry from his 2012 and 2013 MVP seasons, Miggy fell below 500 plate appearances for the first time since he debut season of 2003 with the Marlins. The good news? His .299/.395/.448 triple-slash was much better than 2017 (.249/.329/.399) which featured his worst numbers since, you guessed it, 2003. I am taking a flyer that Miggy still has some left in the tank and taking advantage of the Fantasy ageism that absolutely exists.

I’m a little upset with my Round 12 and 14 picks, in Yusei Kikuchi and Jon Gray. Not because I don’t like the players, but because I fell into the trap of drafting based on the ranking in front of me, not the value that is out there. I think hitters are much harder to come by and try to focus on getting quality hitting before shoring up the pitching staff. The biggest reason, for sure, was that Nick Senzel went Pick 154. There is no universe that I value Kikuchi over Senzel. I can’t believe I forgot about him. I wanted Castillo and Senzel.. and didn’t get either one.

Writing this isn’t helping me enjoy my team much more.. so I’m gonna lighting-round the rest of my picks:

• Pedro Strop – Opens the season as Cubs’ closer, hoping for some saves early on.
• Josh Bell – Solid OBP guy who has a 20-homer bat. Insurance for Miggy I guess.
• Jeff Samardzija – My favorite podcast has boosted him up. Three consecutive years of 200+ IP and decent ERA/WHIP before last year.
• Jackie Bradley Jr. – Another Eno Sarris guy. In a great lineup.
• Matt Kemp – Potential platoon with Winker and a Red… I didn’t have a great strategy late.
• Francisco Mejia – This guy was a “top prospect” at some point… and I have to fill the C slot, I think.
• Shohei Ohtani (Pitcher) – This is literally just to keep him next year.
• Jesse Winker – My last keeper. I actually had dinner with Jesse last year at the Reds Hall of Fame induction. Nice guy. Big Buffalo Bills fan.
• Matt Olson – See Ohtani above. Only 24 years old and after injury, could be a steal of a keeper next season.

Well, there we have it. Honestly, I don’t love my team. Not a great sign immediately after a draft. Good thing I won this league last year. If you made it this far, thanks for reading. Seriously, I know you don’t care about my fantasy team.

Welcome to the best weekend of the NFL season!

Seriously, look at those matchups. This is great. The only thing that might have made it better is Seattle over Dallas. Then again a third Rams/Seahawks game probably isn’t necessary. Without further delay, my thoughts:

Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs

4:35 p.m. ET Saturday, January 12, 2019

The hallowed Arrowhead Stadium plays host as Kansas City attempts to exercise some demons acquired on January 4, 2014, inside of Lucas Oil Stadium. On that day, KC led 31-10 at halftime and scored to extend the lead to 28 points quickly after the second half began. What happened after that is likely blocked out of all Chiefs’ fans memories as they blew the second largest lead in a playoff game in NFL history. I guess I should mention that they have played since then one time. It was Week 8 of the 2016 season. KC won in Indy 30-14, and it was Alex Smith and Nick Foles playing QB for the Chiefs that day. Also, some of the Colts weapons then were Frank Gore, Philip Dorsett, and Donte Moncrief. Suffice it to say that things have changed since then, but you know the Chiefs remember that fateful day just over five years ago.

Today, we have Andy Reid leading KC still and Andrew Luck back at the helm of the offense for Indy. He has always been a favorite of mine and I’m not sure why as I write this, but maybe because of videos like this one. Not to mention the dude is a very good QB…something I don’t know much about.

One significant change since the previous playoff meeting is Patrick Mahomes, as any NFL fan can tell you, the likely NFL MVP for the 2018 regular season. He took the league by storm this year to the tune of over 5,000 passing yards and 50 passing TDs. (Although, I do take issue with some of Mahomes’ “passing touchdowns“, he is without a doubt the most exciting first-year starter since… let me think… Saquon Barkley? Baker Mayfield? Man, the NFL is fun, isn’t it?).

This is probably the most exciting matchup of the weekend not only due to the awesome QBs but also Tyreek Hill (he runs away from both McCourty’s in that video and those dudes are not slow) and T.Y. Hilton.

It is snowing right now in Kansas City, but I’m skeptical that will have much of an impact. The temperature appears to be right around 30 degrees for game time. As far as weather impacting the game, I think that is mainly due to the wind which shouldn’t be a factor as it’s forecasted at 10 mph or lower for the duration of the contest. I think this game comes down to which defense forces a key turnover or maybe a special teams score. Perhaps Eric Berry can intercept Andrew Luck or Darius Leonard gets a strip sack to set up some points. Something along those lines or a Tyreek Hill punt return touchdown will be the difference. I’ll go with the home team, although backing Andy Reid in the playoffs seems to be asking for punishment.

Colts 31 – 35 Chiefs

Dallas Cowboys @ Los Angeles Rams

8:15 p.m. ET Saturday, January 12, 2019

The Rams clinched the NFC West in Week 13 and all three of their losses this season were against playoff teams. They are a well-oiled machine ready to make amends for last year’s playoff disappointment against the Falcons. There seems to be a narrative around the offense that since Cooper Kupp went down they just aren’t the same. I guess that could be true, but I just don’t believe that one receiver can damage a team that was generating headlines like this just a few months ago. The Rams are really good…I know, I know breaking news, right?

On the flip side, you have a team in Dallas that seemed much closer to firing their head coach than winning their division not too long ago. As recently as Week 9, they were generating headlines such as this one and this one and this one. They also have fired a coach this season (O-Line coach Paul Alexander) prior to that Week 9 Monday Night Football loss to the Titans. Since then, however, the Cowboys are on a roll. Winning eight of nine games and now they head on over to Los Angeles team that may have peaked a little too early this year.

The Cowboys are coached by the clapper (Jason Garrett, who I may or may not have wagered on to be the first coach fired this year, whoops). As you saw from the links above, more than one person thought he should be removed from his post just two months ago. The Rams are led by wunderkind and second-coming Sean McVay.

You tell me who has the advantage.

In all seriousness, I think this game comes down to which team can impose their will. If it becomes a shootout, how do the Rams lose? If it’s ball control and the Cowboys can get Zeke going, I can see them pulling off the upset. My pick:

Cowboys 20 – 31 Rams

Los Angeles Chargers @ New England Patriots

1:05 p.m. ET Sunday, January 13, 2019

I’m just going to start this with saying I am picking the Chargers to win the game. Let’s get that bias out of the way here.

Obviously picking against Tom Brady is not a smart way to go about life. He is probably the best QB of all-time. However, as they say, father time is undefeated. I’m not trying to say that 41-year old, San Mateo, CA-native, and noted Ugg enthusiast Thomas Edward Patrick Brady, Jr. (holy shit did you guys know this dude has FOUR first names? Shit Junior could be one… FIVE first names….) is washed up by any stretch. However, if you were 41-years old, have a model wife, five Super Bowl rings, and three NFL MVPs would you want to get lit up by Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa? The answer is no.

In my opinion, this Charger team is the second best in the AFC to Kansas City. With that said, going to Foxboro and winning is not easy if you aren’t wearing red, white, and blue, and the Pats are undefeated at home this year. The Chargers are undefeated outside the city of Los Angeles this season. Something has to give.

I’m going to say Brady will get sacked once or twice and then get happy feet and rush some throws and human-football-homing-missile Derwin James will make him pay by being in the right place at the right time with a pick 6.

Chargers 27 – 24 Patriots

Philadelphia Eagles @ New Orleans Saints

4:40 p.m. ET Sunday, January 13, 2019

The final matchup of the NFL’s quarterfinals features yet another regular season rematch. I’m sure about zero people were backing the Eagles to make the playoffs following that game as New Orleans laid the smack down on Philly’s candy-asses. The Saints won 48-7 in Week 11 seemingly putting the proverbial final nail into the coffin of the Eagles’ 2018 season. Of course, we know now that Philly would reel off five wins in their final six games with the only loss coming in overtime to division-rival and fellow playoff team Dallas. Not only that, but the Eagles seem to be benefitting from some type of divine power (Foles’ magic anyone) as Bears kicker Cody Parkey’s game-winning field goal attempt hit not one, but two goal posts on its way to missing and sending the Eagles to the next round.

As for New Orleans, the recent narrative is that their offense has struggled lately. I think that mostly became a public opinion as a result of them playing on Thursday Night Football on national TV and putting up only 10 points at Dallas and then on Monday Night Football, once again in the national spotlight, struggling to move the ball and scoring only 12 points at Carolina. In between those games, the Saints took care of Tampa Bay 28-14 on the road. Finally, in the penultimate regular-season matchup hosting the Steelers, they won 31-28 and effectively removed them from the playoff picture. You can throw out Week 17 as little-to-no starters played in that game. The fact is New Orleans has a very good offense, as rated by nearly any metric you can find.

Something concerning to me is that Drew Brees led the NFL in Game Winning Drives and Comebacks. Now you might be thinking: Hambone, are you dumb? That means Drew Brees is really good at QB. And I would say, yes, I agree; however, this also means that the Saints were losing or playing very close games into the 4th quarter. To me, that is playing with fire, and if recent events are any indication, the Eagles will have that Foles’ Magic on their side and maybe, just maybe, the ball will smack the upright–and the crossbar–after coming off of Will Lutz’ trusty right foot, and miss. Either way, I think we’re in for some entertaining football inside the Superdome.

Eagles 20 – 28 Saints

Just a quick takeaway from today’s NFL action. Hope you enjoy.

PITTSBURGH 28 @ CINCINNATI 21

As a Bengals fan, this result is not surprising. I did not expect them to win today. Although they certainly got my hopes up by taking the lead with just over one minute left to play. Problem is they gave the ball back to the Steelers with all three timeouts left. You could see the writing on the wall before the Bengals even made the PAT to take the lead 21-20. Bengals fans could have a legitimate grip with the game winning touchdown coming on a “pick play” where there was less pick and more outright offensive pass interference, but I’m not one to blame the refs. Just play better. The good news for Cincy? They are still tied for first place with Baltimore at 4-2 in the AFC North. Bad news is they head to, as I write this, undefeated Kansas City next week for Sunday Night Football. Pittsburgh enters their bye week at 3-2-1 and one more win over Baltimore or Cincinnati away from the division lead. Oh, and they just might be adding the single best skill player in the league back to the team in Le’Veon Bell.

SEATTLE 27 @ OAKLAND 3 (Game played in London, England)

I kind of like Oakland here and boy was that dumb. I figured Seattle had shot their load last week against LA and would just be worn down and sleeping on the Raiders. But after this I just think Oakland is very bad. Like 3-13 bad. Seattle is solid, but I don’t think they should be beating anyone 27-3 without Earl Thomas. Their defense is just not the same without him on the field. This was basically a shutout. Oakland made their field goal with only 8 minutes to play and it was already 0-27. Pretty surprising today, but I think when we look back at this scoreline in maybe Week 12 it will be pretty expected by then.

INDIANAPOLIS 34 @ NY JETS 42

I texted a buddy around noon today that I kind of liked the Colts defense because they were getting rookie LB Darius Leonard back from injury. He is a monster. That plus facing rookie Sam Darnold kind of looked like an appealing match up. I’m not ready to say I was horribly wrong here though as the scoreline indictates. The second play of the game was a pick 6 thrown by Andrew Luck (who is basically a poor man’s Brett Favre at this point), and then he led them down the field and scored on the ensuing possession. It was 7-7 in under three minutes and the Jets hadn’t even taken a snap on offense. They drove and kicked a field goal. After forcing a three and out, Darnold threw a pick on their second drive. The aforementioned Darius Leonard forced a fumble on the Jets’ next drive. Then a three and out. So, four drives, three points, two turnovers. Solid start for the Indy D. The Colts offense proceeds to fumble it back to New York in their own territory. The Jets only have to go 43 yards for a touchdown and they do with two third down conversions. Luck answers with another interception and the Jets put together a scoring drive of 4 plays, -8 yards in 29 seconds….. come on. Now I’ll give Darnold some credit, he led them to a field goal with only 42 seconds left in the first half on 6 plays and 58 yards. If we take away the first and last drives, the Jets ran 19 plays and gained 59 yards on 5 possessions. Yet they led 23-13 thanks to Andrew Luck throwing 2 interceptions and 17 points off turnovers. The Jets scored 6 “normal” points. Now I’m not chalking this up as a win by any stretch. I just think this is a game that you really had to have eyes on to understand and the box score lies.

LA CHARGERS 38 @ CLEVELAND 14

I didn’t see a second of this one, so take it with a grain of salt. This just makes me think of Dennis Green’s legendary press conference. The Browns are who I thought they were. An average team with some promising young talent. Not ready to compete yet. The Chargers had 449 total yards to the Browns’ 317. They also ran 14 fewer plays. That’s 7.7 yards per play to 4.4 yards per play. Not good for the home team. Weird thing is Phil Rivers only threw for 207 yards. Hard to imagine how you put up 38 points with so few passing yards. Melvin Gordon ran for 132 yards and 3 touchdowns and let’s just say I’m very happy to have him on my fantasy team. Jarvis Landry was held to only 2 catches for 11 yards, so let’s just say I’m not happy to have him on the same fantasy team. I was watching the Sunday Night Football pregame and I think they said Baker Mayfield was hurt during the game, so there has to be more to the story here. I just checked the drive charts, and Cleveland was down 3-14 late in the second quarter and failed to convert on 4th and 2 from the Chargers’ 23-yard line. The Chargers then scored in 1:22 and it was 21-3 just like that. The Browns got a field goal as time expired in the second quarter, but Baker threw a pick on their first drive out of halftime and the Chargers scored on the next play. It was 28-6 with 11:49 left in the third after that. A Browns three and out followed by a Chargers 11 play, 81 yard, 7:10 drive to make it 35-6 sealed the deal. Sad thing is Cleveland couldn’t really move the ball down 14-35 in the fourth quarter. That is prime stat-stuffing garbage time for fantasy owners. Come on Cleveland…

TAMPA BAY 29 @ ATLANTA 34

I loved the Falcons -3.5 last Monday. Told my buddy to jump all over that. He brought up a good point that the public was all over Atlanta as well (fading the public is much smarter than being on the same side as the majority of bettors…think about it, Vegas has to keep those lights on somehow right?), but I just couldn’t shake the feeling that Atlanta would win this by at least a touchdown. They went up 21-6 and picked off Jameis Winston with less than five minutes in the first half, but punted it back and gave up a touchdown. Really could have put the game out of reach there. It ended up 24-13 at halftime in favor of Atlanta. Tampa Bay got within two early in the fourth quarter, but the Falcons answered with a touchdown. The Bucs answered right back and it was 29-31 with only 3:47 to play. The Falcons made a field goal to cover the spread and HOLY CRAP DID I GET LUCKY. I’m reading the play-by-play as I’m typing… Tampa had it at the Atlanta 5 yard line with 7 seconds left!!! Atlanta -3.5 never in doubt!!!

CAROLINA 17 @ WASHINGTON 23

This is a classic overreaction game. Washington gets embarrassed on Monday Night Football. Everyone is writing them off. They are home underdogs. And they win. Along with the Colts and Dolphins, Washington made up my three teams not getting any respect this week that I thought presented value. If only I had an avenue to share my thoughts publicly before things happen… Anyway, Adrian Peterson had 17 carries for 97 yards. My dude Paul Richardson Jr. caught a touchdown and Washington took care of business. It was 14-0 after the first quarter. Carolina didn’t even score until 3:05 left in the first half. At halftime it was 17-6 Washington. They exchanged field goals then a Panther touchdown made it 17-20 with 8:32 left in the game. Washington tacked on three more before stopping Carolina on 4th & 5 with only 38 seconds left from their own 16-yard line. The NFL man, delivers awesome finishes every week.

ARIZONA 17 @ MINNESOTA 27

This one wasn’t even as close as the score indicates. Minnesota out gained them 411-269 total yards. Passing was similar at 216-208 yards with the Vikings edging the Cards. Rushing is where Minnesota killed them. 195 yards to 61 for Arizona. Pretty sure the narrative surrounding Minnesota was their poor offensive line play… welp. Each team turned it over 2 times. It was the Latavious Murray show. 24 carries for 155 yards and a touchdown. Oh yeah and Adam freaking Thielen. 11 catches for 123 yards and a touchdown. That dude is annoying. (In an unrelated note, I have Stefon Diggs on several fantasy teams and Thielen on exactly zero.)

BUFFALO 13 @ HOUSTON 20

Wow. A combined 27 first downs and each team gained less then 4 yards per play. I don’t have the league averages, but suffice it to say these two were very below average on offense today. Add that to three turnovers each, and goodness gracious. My thoughts are with anyone that sat through this poopfecta down in Houston today. The Astros are in the ALCS at least. Nathan Peterman threw it 12 times… I guess Josh Allen got hurt? LeSean McCoy had 16 carries for 73 yards… maybe give him the ball more. Houston trailed 10-13 with 13 minutes left in the game. How in the hell are you losing to Nathan Peterman at home? Yeesh. Luckily for the Texans, Peterman threw a pick six with only 1:30 left. Just for good measure he threw another interception on the next drive. Truly amazing stuff here. My takeaway is this: Houston isn’t good and Buffalo is very, very bad. Will they win another game this year?

CHICAGO 28 @ MIAMI 31 (OT)

Similar to the Carolina-Washington game, everyone was writing Miami off after their collapse last week. They outplayed the Bengals for over 2.5 quarters and aside from two incredibly random pick 6’s including a ‘ball bouncing off a helmet into a defensive lineman’s hands’ interception. In what universe should Mitchell Trubisky be favored on the road? I’ll give you a hint, not this one. Now, it did go to overtime and Chicago missed a 53-yarder to win it in OT. I think the lesson here is that neither team is very good. I will be surprised if either one makes the playoffs.

LA RAMS 23 @ DENVER 20

Man, Vegas must have cleaned up today. The Rams were favored by 7 points and led by 10 late. Denver scored to make it 20-23 with only 1:22 to play. The onside kick did not work. In what is not even slightly breaking news to anyone, Todd Gurley is really freaking good at football. He ran for 208 yards and 2 touchdowns on 28 carries. Gotta hope he doesn’t get over used in the regular season. The Rams are legit Super Bowl contenders. Case Keenum threw for over 300 yards, but that doesn’t mean much. This game wasn’t nearly as close as the final score. It was 20-3 with 3:09 left in the third quarter and Keenum threw a pick in LA territory. Not to be outdone, Jared Goff threw an interception right back and Denver scored to make it 10-20 still in the third quarter. The Rams drove into the red zone, but had to settle for a field goal. It was never really in doubt for the Rams, but of course Denver covers the spread.

BALTIMORE 21 @ TENNESSEE 0

This game was fun. It produced some awesome stats.

Titans first downs: 7
Titans punts: 9
Baltimore sacks: 11

Breaking news: It is not good if you let your quarterback get sacked more times then you get first downs. Holy cow I do not understand Tennessee. They got former LA Rams offensive coordinator Matt LeFleur and I really expected Mariota to take a step forward with some nice weapons around him. Baltimore does have a legit defense, but goodness how do you get shut out at home?? At least my boy Crabtree finally caught a touchdown. Just in time for me to bench him on my fantasy team. Fun stuff.

JACKSONVILLE 7 @ DALLAS 40

Did not see this coming. I may or may not have allocated some capital on Jason Garrett to be the first coach fired this season, so this was the opposite of what I wanted to see. It was 10-0 Dallas and I remember thinking that the Jags were done. Blake Bortles just cannot come from behind. He has to have a lead to be effective. Also missing Leonard Fournette is just killing Jacksonville on offense. Biggest takeaway in my opinion: Dak Prescott looked good. Two touchdowns and 82 yards rushing. He added a rushing touchdown as well. Cole Beasley caught 9 passes for 101 yards and 2 touchdowns. Man stacking those two up in a daily fantasy lineup would have been profitable. Jacksonville hosts Houston next week. I love the Jags in that spot. Dallas goes to Washington in what is now a big NFC East match up with first place on the line.

It was a fun Week 6, on to Kansas City…

Each week on Monday morning, I write down all the games and quickly pick a line of my own, and then listen to The Bill Simmons Podcast. I’ve read and listened to Bill for many years and his buddy Cousin Sal. They are pretty funny together (each was a writer for Jimmy Kimmel Live), and I just enjoy the premise of getting your thoughts down early and not really over thinking it. The podcast can be found here:

https://www.theringer.com/the-bill-simmons-podcast/2018/10/8/17950566/first-coach-fired-bowl-and-guess-the-lines-with-cousin-sal-week-6

Simmons and Sal begin with the Texans and Cowboys game and call it the “First Coach Fired Bowl” which would be great considering I have Jason Garrett as the first coach fired this season at around 22-1. Shoot if he got canned I’d say Zeke’s value goes up. I’m sure many coaches would be able to utilize Dak much better than whatever the hell the Cowboys have been doing and the offense would improve overall. Sal makes fun of Collinsworth for praising the game, which by all accounts was horrible to watch.

I watched most of the first half but just didn’t care enough to stay up for it. I guess Houston got inside the 5-yard line like four times and only got field goals. Let me check…

• Houston made a 20-yarder (from the 2-yard line).
• Failed to convert 4th & Goal from the Dallas 1 just before halftime (why aren’t you taking the points??)
• Made a field goal from the Dallas 3.
• Another field goal following 1st & Goal from the Dallas 1!

So, on four drives they took a snap inside the opponent 5-yard line and only scored 9 points total. This ineptitude reminds me of the Bengals beating the Ravens 21-7 all the way back in 2007….with 7 (!) field goals, not 3 touchdowns. Really amazing how the Texans only score 19 points last night. I don’t think either team is very good at this point, but Houston has a much better path to relevancy given their division and overall team talent.

As for Guess the Lines, Bill was way off on multiple lines. However, Sal and I were much more in line with Vegas. I think there are two or three games that I am targeting early on. I’m really interested in line movement this week and I think there will be a few games that shift over some significant numbers.

I’ve highlighted my favorite sides so far. Atlanta is basically in a must-win situation along with facing who I think is a bottom five team in the league. If they can’t beat the Bucs by a TD, someone needs to lose their job *cough* Steve Sarkisian *cough*.

The Bears are coming off their bye, and ‘defense travels’ as they say. But Miami has to be embarrassed after collapsing inside Paul Brown Stadium this past Sunday. They outplayed the Bengals for nearly three full quarters. Aside from two incredibly random and fluky defensive lineman pick 6’s, the Dolphins won that game 17-13. And you are telling me Mitch Trubisky is favored on the road? Please. Give me Miami (the home dog) all day long.

Also, no clue what Houston has done to be favored by more than a touchdown. They barely won last night and haven’t looked very good all year. That said it is Buffalo, and who knows what they are bringing each week. Josh Allen has looked like a poor man’s Cam Newton at best, and, at worst, well, Josh Allen. A rookie from a small school on arguably the least talented team in the entire league. I think Allen’s ceiling is Joe Flacco with some legs and his floor is probably out of the league by 2020.

I think right now you could place a bet on Atlanta, Minnesota, and Green Bay to each win. Nice little moneyline parlay, and you would be happy come next Monday evening. Of course since it’s the NFL, I’m sure one of them will blow it.

The Rams go to Denver after barely surviving up in Seattle. I don’t think the miles traveled is a big deal, but the altitude could affect their style of play and reliance on one guy in Gurley.  Add in the injuries to Kupp and Cooks and who knows. I’m not ready to put them on upset alert against Case freaking Keenum, but stranger things have happened this year. Are they really going to go 16-0? I have my doubts.

The pod ends with Simmons and Sal doing a segment they named “Parent Corner” and I gotta say, these guys are pretty damn funny. Highly recommend giving it a listen and lately Simmons has been interviewing some actors including Denzel Washington and Matt Damon. He does sports and pop culture and just is a cool dude overall.

Thanks for reading!

-Hambone

The Vikings were a 17-point favorite for most of the week, and my buddy texted me that he was betting on Buffalo based on principle. I told him he must like lighting money on fire. Well, his principles were correct. In what has to be the biggest upset since Trump over Hillary, the 0-2 and seemingly incompetent Buffalo Bills came out and, as my midget football coach told us before every game, PUNCHED ‘EM IN THE MOUTH (that would have been funny if you knew the guy and heard him say it…he was about 5’7″ and pushing 350 and nicknamed ‘Wimp’, great dude).

Buffalo took the opening kick and drove 9 plays, 75 yards in just under five minutes. Josh Allen ran in from 10 yards out to cap the drive. 7-0 Bills. No big deal with that vaunted Vikings offense. Kirk Cousins gets strip sacked on the ensuing possession on 3rd down and Buffalo takes over. The Bills have 3rd and 1 from the Vikings 6-yard line, but end up settling for a field goal following a false start and incomplete pass. 10-0 Buffalo with 7:24 left. No worries, right? Wrong. Same exact result on the Vikings second offensive drive: 3rd and 8, Kirk Cousins gets sacked and fumbles. Buffalo ball and some guy named Jason Croom catches a 26-yard TD pass from Allen. (Seriously, who the hell is Jason Croom? He sounds like a shitty action movie star. Could you imagine Jason Bourne being named Jason Croom? Me neither.) So less than 10 minutes into the game it’s 17-0 Buffalo. The Vikings proceed to punt and then Buffalo drives 11 plays, 65 yards in 5 minutes, 45 seconds and leads 24-0 with another Josh Allen rushing TD. I think it was a QB sneak, but Allen did have a nasty stiff arm on Minnesota’s LB Anthony Barr and let’s just say it was embarrassing. At this point it’s 0-24 and you might as well try and get out of here without losing anyone to injury. The Bills won 27-6 in Minnesota (that just sounds insane to say) and it was 27-0 at halftime. 99% of people picked the Vikings to win in the Yahoo! Pigskin Pick ’em contest, so it’s safe to say this was a surprise. I remember telling myself last year to pretend you know nothing about any teams until at least Week 4 is over. It certainly seems that way today, but then again the LA Rams are 3-0 and look like no one can sniff their jock.

Cincinnati 21 @ Carolina 31

The Bengals won two games in five days, but lost their blooming star RB Joe Mixon and first round pick center Billy Price in the process. Me personally being a huge Bengals fan did expect them to lose today, and they delivered. Cam Newton looked like, well, Cam Newton. The dude is built like a damn linebacker. The Bengals got a 3-and-out to start then drove down and scored a touchdown with a nice 11 play, 75 yard drive, but then allowed the Panthers to put together a touchdown drive and Andy Dalton threw an interception on a 3rd and 17 following a timeout as the play clock was expiring. I swear Marvin Lewis loves burning timeouts in the first quarter more than any other coach. They used a timeout on their first and second drives because the play clock was getting low. It’s just mind-boggling how they do that. Timeouts are a precious commodity in the NFL, but when you don’t really try to score late in halves like the Bengals usually don’t, who cares I guess. The interception wasn’t the worst as it was on the Panthers 30 yard line. But they drove and scored. The Bengals rush D was gashed by Christian McCaffrey several times throughout the game and he ran for 184 yards on 28 carries. Cam Newton ran two in and threw two TD’s. Tyler Boyd looked good again for the Bengals, consistenly being open in big moments and made a TD grab in the corner of the end zone. Dalton seems to be trusting him a lot lately. AJ Green almost had a touchdown catch but it was a penalty on Carolina for defensive holding and he came down and his knee stuck into the grass and catapulted his body forward in a summersault almost and banged his head on the ground. I was nervous but he got up and just came out for one play getting a breather. Gio Bernard ended up punching it in from 1 yard out. The Bengals scored late in the 3rd to make it a one score game, but scoring-wise there was just a Panthers field goal with about one minute to play in the fourth quarter. Watching the game, it always felt like the Panthers were going to win. The Bengals were missing their best offensive player aside from AJ Green, so I’m fine with this result. If they can somehow pull off an upset next week in Atlanta, I’ll be ecstatic; however, I’m also okay with 2-2 seeing that we beat a divisional opponent and this is a tough stretch of schedule. The Bengals welcome the Dolphins and Steelers in Week 5 and 6, and those are games they need to win if they plan on making the playoffs, and you can bet I’ll be in the Jungle screaming as loud as possible to maybe draw a false start or two.

New Orleans 43 @ Atlanta 37 (OT)

AT LEAST IT WASN’T A TIE, AM I RIGHT?!?! Man, I was nervous the NFL was turning into the European version of football for a second with a tie in Week 1 and 2. I was on New Orleans +3 points so I’m very happy with the result. Unfortunately, I couldn’t watch much since I live in Northern Kentucky and it wasn’t on TV. The biggest story here? Probably rookie Calvin Ridley catching 3 touchdowns. Julio Jones is still allergic to the end zone. What is that guys deal? Do teams double him in the end zone? They have to be doing that given his touchdown totals since the beginning of 2017. What is it like 3 TD’s? Man that is frustrating (I played Julio in DFS…but don’t worry I played Calvin as well!). Drew Brees ran into the end zone twice including the game winner, so that is neat. Matt Ryan threw for 374 and 5 TD’s. Alvin Kamara got 15 catches (!!) and Michael Thomas had 10. Both over 120 receiving yards. What a fun game.

San Francisco 27 @ Kansas City 38

Man, the Chiefs look like a well-oiled machine, huh? It was 14-0 after the first at Arrowhead. The Niners scored on a drive that lasted through the end of the first and into the second. Wow, I’m looking at play-by-play as I write this and KC scored touchdowns on each of their first 5 drives (!).. Every time they got the ball in the first half they scored a touchdown. It was 35-10 at halftime. Good god. Biggest story here is that Jimmy GQ might have torn his ACL. Really sucks the hear that. My buddy asked me who their back up is and I have no clue… so, CJ Beathard…. LMAO. Yikes. The 49ers suck again. Man, the Rams are gonna go like 14-2. They basically have a bye in to the playoffs. KC look like the team to beat in the AFC. Obviously, it’s only Week 2 and I advise everyone (mainly myself) to take a deep breath when thinking playoffs or Super Bowl contenders yet. I mean this time last year I still thought Jacksonville sucked and I don’t think I was calling for Philly to be having a parade come early February. Anyway, I only saw the TD highlights on this one while watching NFL Redzone, so I don’t have any strong opinions to take away. The 2nd half went like this drive-by-drive:
KC: punt
SF: TD 16-35 (failed two-point)
KC: punt
SF: TD 24-35 (successful two-point)
KC: FG 38-24
SF: FG 27-38    This drive was weird. Down by 14 and they went 17 plays (!), 58 yards, 8 minutes, 30 seconds! What?! What are you doing Shannahan? Ya gotta go man. Show some urgency. I just read the play-by-play and they converted a 4th down and then got to 1st and Goal from the 4 yd line. Jimmy G sacked -8 yards. 2nd and Goal, sacked again -8 yards, fumbles, but SF recovered. 3rd and Goal, Jimmy G scrambled for 13 yards and tore his ACL. Wow! CJ Bethard comes in and throws a TD, but offensive pass interference is called. They settle for a FG from the 17-yard line. Weird man, just weird.
KC: run out the clock

Given the injury, SF doesn’t look great for the rest of the season, while KC probably just played some soft defense in the second half. On a side note, I hope the Bengals play at Arrowhead in my lifetime because I’d love an excuse to go there for a game.

Denver 14 @ Baltimore 27

I thought Denver was kind of good, but they scored 14 points in less then 8 minutes and then proceed to get shut out the rest of the game?? Baltimore was missing two of their best defensive players (CB Jimmy Smith and LB CJ Mosley) and Denver punted 7 straight drives after the first two touchdowns!!! Andy freaking Dalton threw 4 touchdowns on these guys and you can’t score another point?!?!? In a related note to my frustration, I bet on Denver to score Over 19.5 points. The lesson as always, gambling is not fair. You know whats even better about them refusing to score points after the first quarter? They blocked a Baltimore field goal attempt and returned it for a touchdown, only to have it called back by an illegal blocking penalty. I hate everything.

Baltimore led 20-14 at halftime. They forced a punt on the opening drive of the second half and then drove 14 plays, 82 yards for over 6 minutes to score the final points of the game halfway through the 3rd quarter. They got an offsides penalty to convert 3rd down and then two more 3rd down conversions later on the drive. Man, that would be frustrating as a Denver fan. The lesson from this game? Maybe that Denver is limited with Case Keenum? Idk. Baltimore isn’t THAT good, but I think they will be in playoff contention all year. They should only get better on defense and they have some nice skill players around Flacco. Let’s just hope they don’t get the Browns treatment and luck into an effective quarterback via injury…

Indianapolis 16 @ Philadelphia 20

The Colts covered, which I leaned and didn’t bet. The lesson as always, don’t gamble. Andrew Luck was the Colts’ leading rusher with 1 carry for 33 yards (LOL). Looking at the box score, it seems like Philly’s defense is still really good. Dallas Goedert (what a name! ….thinking of a joke… still thinki- ah, I got nothin). He caught his first career touchdown and had 7 catches for 73 yards to lead Philly in receiving yards along with Zach Ertz. Well done. Dude cut his teeth at South Dakota State as a Jackrabbit. How is it that guys come from these Division I-A schools can make the NFL and you rarely see like Ohio State and Alabama guys having good NFL careers?

It was 10-7 Philly at halftime. The Colts tied it and took the lead with a few field goals. They each exchanged field goals after that to make it 16-13 Indy just after the start of the fourth quarter. Wow, Wentz then led a 17 play (!), 75 yard drive that ate over 11 minutes of clock. 20-16 Eagles. The Colts take over with just about 3 minutes left and wow got all the way to the Philly 4 yard line on fourth and goal and they sacked Luck to ice the game. Hang on, they still had 3 time outs and forced a punt. Indy got the ball back but just ended up throwing a hail mary and time expired. What a game. Mark this down, I think Indy will give Jacksonville a run for their money in the AFC South. Jags lost to the freaking Titans a week after handing it to the Pats. The NFL is weird man, and I’m down to back an Andrew Luck-led team. Let’s peak at Indy’s upcoming schedule:
vs Houston
@ New England (Thursday night)
@ New York Jets
vs Buffalo
@ Oakland
Then the big one: vs Jacksonville on November 11.
Could you imagine the Colts winning 5 in a row and then that game happens? Even 4-1 puts them at 5-3 on the season. Jags just lost to the Titans. I can absolutely see them winning all five of those games. Obviously beating the Pats won’t be easy, but Thursday night games are weird as hell and New England is currently losing to the Lions 10-20. It can happen. Indy: 10 wins minimum, mark it eight, dude.

Sunday night, 10:18pm: I’m tired, gonna head to bed and edit this post in the morning with more game reviews. The NFL…it’s weird.

It’s 9:06pm on Sunday night as I begin writing this, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers scored 48 points today. Raise your hand if you started the Saints defense on nearly all of your fantasy teams *raises hand sheepishly*.

Ahhh, NFL is back and, so too, is stressing over my fake teams only existent on the internet. Just looking at the scores some things stand out, the Ravens won 47-3 over Buffalo and New Orleans put up 40…but lost. In true NFL fashion, it was a very weird day. The Browns and Steelers managed to tie. The Saints gave up 48 points (If you couldn’t tell, I really expected the Bucs to not do a whole lot on offense…and they did.)

Of course there were some controversial penalties. It wouldn’t be the 2018 NFL without them.

<<insert gif of Myles Garrett penalty and Carlos Dunlap penalty>>

(I’m not sure how to add gifs into my WordPress post yet.)

As I’m typing this, Aaron Rodgers is being carted into the locker room at Lambeau Field. That sucks. Bears lead 10-0 as Deshone Kizer takes over for GB. Fun Fact: both his first and last name produce a red underline typo.

Expected: Minnesota, Baltimore, Jacksonville, New England, Denver, Carolina each winning.

Surprises: Tampa Bay winning, Washington dominating, Cleveland not losing, Miami/Tennessee playing for over 7 hours (granted, there were over 4 hours of weather delay).

I’d say Week 1 of the 2018 NFL season did not disappoint. My current takeaways:
Tyreek Hill is really, really good.
The Titans are in trouble if they have to play Blaine Gabbert; a lot of trouble.
Tom Brady is really good, still.
The Saints defense sucks.

It is still very early in the MLB season, so drawing any conclusions from the numbers can be a fruitful effort; however, I think that observing this data early on can be helpful to identify potential outliers and see which teams will regress toward the mean. 

The premise behind this look at hits per game and runs per game is that on average, teams will need two hits to produce each run scored. (I discovered this in Chapter 2 of the remarkable Trading Bases by Joe Peta which I highly recommend for any baseball fan.) This has held true for the past decade, despite the lowest total coming just last season.

As you can see above, the Phillies (PHI) and Blue Jays (TOR) are both generating above league average runs per game while each teams’ hits per game is below league average. One could reasonably guess that both teams will score on average one fewer run per game going forward. 

On the opposite end of the spectrum, the Giants (SF) and Brewers (MIL) are both above league average in hits per game and below league average in runs per game. Once again, it would be reasonable to predict more runs being scored by those two teams in the future. 

Three teams that are just on fire so far in both categories are the Pirates (PIT), Red Sox (BOS), and Angels (LAA). Each should calm down. I expect to see Pittsburgh to fall the soonest. As for Boston and LA, each team has great individual talent, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see them remain ahead of the rest of the league all season long.

It will be interesting to revisit these numbers with some more data since the season is only about 7.5% complete. I would say a good time to revisit will be the quarter mark, about 1,200 games in. That should fall around the middle of May. See ya then!