2018 NFL Week 6 Guess the Lines

Each week on Monday morning, I write down all the games and quickly pick a line of my own, and then listen to The Bill Simmons Podcast. I’ve read and listened to Bill for many years and his buddy Cousin Sal. They are pretty funny together (each was a writer for Jimmy Kimmel Live), and I just enjoy the premise of getting your thoughts down early and not really over thinking it. The podcast can be found here:


Simmons and Sal begin with the Texans and Cowboys game and call it the “First Coach Fired Bowl” which would be great considering I have Jason Garrett as the first coach fired this season at around 22-1. Shoot if he got canned I’d say Zeke’s value goes up. I’m sure many coaches would be able to utilize Dak much better than whatever the hell the Cowboys have been doing and the offense would improve overall. Sal makes fun of Collinsworth for praising the game, which by all accounts was horrible to watch.

I watched most of the first half but just didn’t care enough to stay up for it. I guess Houston got inside the 5-yard line like four times and only got field goals. Let me check…

  • Houston made a 20-yarder (from the 2-yard line).
  • Failed to convert 4th & Goal from the Dallas 1 just before halftime (why aren’t you taking the points??)
  • Made a field goal from the Dallas 3.
  • Another field goal following 1st & Goal from the Dallas 1!

So, on four drives they took a snap inside the opponent 5-yard line and only scored 9 points total. This ineptitude reminds me of the Bengals beating the Ravens 21-7 all the way back in 2007….with 7 (!) field goals, not 3 touchdowns. Really amazing how the Texans only score 19 points last night. I don’t think either team is very good at this point, but Houston has a much better path to relevancy given their division and overall team talent.

As for Guess the Lines, Bill was way off on multiple lines. However, Sal and I were much more in line with Vegas. I think there are two or three games that I am targeting early on. I’m really interested in line movement this week and I think there will be a few games that shift over some significant numbers.

Screenshot 2018-10-08 at 8.46.40 PM

I’ve highlighted my favorite sides so far. Atlanta is basically in a must-win situation along with facing who I think is a bottom five team in the league. If they can’t beat the Bucs by a TD, someone needs to lose their job *cough* Steve Sarkisian *cough*.

The Bears are coming off their bye, and ‘defense travels’ as they say. But Miami has to be embarrassed after collapsing inside Paul Brown Stadium this past Sunday. They outplayed the Bengals for nearly three full quarters. Aside from two incredibly random and fluky defensive lineman pick 6’s, the Dolphins won that game 17-13. And you are telling me Mitch Trubisky is favored on the road? Please. Give me Miami (the home dog) all day long.

Also, no clue what Houston has done to be favored by more than a touchdown. They barely won last night and haven’t looked very good all year. That said it is Buffalo, and who knows what they are bringing each week. Josh Allen has looked like a poor man’s Cam Newton at best, and, at worst, well, Josh Allen. A rookie from a small school on arguably the least talented team in the entire league. I think Allen’s ceiling is Joe Flacco with some legs and his floor is probably out of the league by 2020.

I think right now you could place a bet on Atlanta, Minnesota, and Green Bay to each win. Nice little moneyline parlay, and you would be happy come next Monday evening. Of course since it’s the NFL, I’m sure one of them will blow it.

The Rams go to Denver after barely surviving up in Seattle. I don’t think the miles traveled is a big deal, but the altitude could affect their style of play and reliance on one guy in Gurley.  Add in the injuries to Kupp and Cooks and who knows. I’m not ready to put them on upset alert against Case freaking Keenum, but stranger things have happened this year. Are they really going to go 16-0? I have my doubts.

The pod ends with Simmons and Sal doing a segment they named “Parent Corner” and I gotta say, these guys are pretty damn funny. Highly recommend giving it a listen and lately Simmons has been interviewing some actors including Denzel Washington and Matt Damon. He does sports and pop culture and just is a cool dude overall.

Thanks for reading!




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