Halftime with Hambone

London Stadium plays host where the Hammers will welcome the Bees for some Monday night football. West Ham (36 points) sit firmly mid-table in 10th place with three losses in a row. Brentford (25 points) are in similarly dreadful form with four losses in their past five matches and only five points clear of relegation. Everton surpassed Brentford in the Premier League table today despite not playing a match as their point deduction farce was reduced to a six-point deduction from ten points previously.

The two teams’ goal differential is much closer with the Hammers (36:44) at -8 and Brentford (35:44) at -9. Checking the xG table via Football Reference shows Brentford has likely been very unlucky this season. The Bees’ xG is 40.3 and xGA is 37.7 revealing a positive xGD of 2.7.

Meanwhile, it’s the opposite for the Hammers with just 33.4 xG and 46.0 xGA for a near-relegation-worthy -12.6 xGD.

Both sides have missed key players with Ivan Toney suspended until January and West Ham still without a true center forward. Jarrod Bowen has performed admirably, but he is more suited as a winger.

It should be noted that Brentford’s poor form has come up against Spurs, Man City twice, and Liverpool. Any points from those four matches would have been welcome and surprising. They did take all three points away to Wolves on 10 February.

The Hammers, on the other hand, are coming off a two-nil defeat at Forest and have not scored a goal since 1 February in a listless 1-1 draw hosting Bournemouth. The goal was a penalty! Before that, it was a 2-all draw away to the Blades… by my count, that’s over 360 minutes without a goal from open play. Ouch.

Lucas Paqueta is in the starting 11 returning from injury to bolster the West Ham attack, but it’s still Bowen up front despite Michail Antonio returning from injury in the previous match versus Forest. Ivan Toney will have a second strike partner next to him in Neil Maupay.

I have to go with the season-long xG data in addition to the recent form in this London derby.

Prediction: West Ham 1 – 2 Brentford

Ivan Toney scores and the Hammers finally get an open play goal. Let’s go with Mohammed Kudus.